Box office revenues are down ... almost 20 percent

The movie business isn't what it used to be.

Even just a year ago.

So far, 2011's North American box office receipts are running 20 percent behind what they were in the first quarter of 2010 - $1.6 billion compared with $2 billion.

Some say, well, duh.

Last year at this time, Tim Burton's "Alice in Wonderland" had just opened to a record March number on its way to making $1 billion worldwide. And the biggest movie of all time, "Avatar" - though technically a late 2009 release - had made most of its money in January and February.

"To fault this year for not having movies like that?" BoxOffice.com editor Phil Contrino said with a dismissive snort. "Well, you can't win 'em all."

But the absence of two phenomenons doesn't tell the whole story.

While a handful of 2011 releases - "No Strings Attached," "The Green Hornet," "Gnomeo and Juliet," "Justin Bieber: Never Say Never" - have performed better than expected, nothing has yet reached the $100 million ticket sales mark in the U.S. and Canada.

"Alice," "Shutter Island" and "Valentine's Day" had each done so by this time last year.

And the current first quarter isn't only looking bad compared to 2010's, but also the year before's.

By March of 2009, "Taken" and "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" were in nine figures as well. This year's efforts to replicate those films' success - the Kevin

James schlub comedy "The Dilemma" and Liam Neeson Euro-thriller "Unknown" - haven't come close.

Additionally, attempts to capitalize on the supernatural teen romance craze ("I Am Number Four," "Beastly," "Red Riding Hood") won't be starting any "Twilight"-challenging franchises. The animated "Rango" isn't replicating 2010's "How to Train Your Dragon's" reptilian attendance resilience.

And while we're mentioning weird cartoons, the current 3-D craze suffered its biggest bomb yet when the $150 million "Mars Needs Moms" failed to gross even $7 million in its debut last weekend.

All this and more follows 2010's underwhelming holiday season, which was good for launching adult-skewing dramas such as "The Fighter," "The King's Speech," "Black Swan" and "True Grit." But its hoped-for blockbusters generated relatively modest business in the new year.

"Last year we had the hangover of all of the big Christmas season movies with `Avatar,' `Alvin and the Chipmunks' and `Sherlock Holmes,"' said Patrick Corcoran, director of media and research for the National Association of Theatre Owners. "They played well into January and then we got `How to Train Your Dragon' and `Alice in Wonderland.'

"This year, the ones that were aimed at being bigger movies just didn't pan out."

While most observers blame the slump on the quality of the movies in the marketplace - or, more accurately, their quota of that elusive element, mass appeal - some see other factors contributing to the attendance drop.

"It's about technology and the types of entertainment we can get on-demand via our Netflix streaming, iTunes, whatever it is - people are watching YouTube on their televisions," said Paul Dergarabedian, the box office expert for Hollywood.com.

"Technology is becoming so utterly convenient, and its quality and various types of entertainment are luring people away from the multiplex."

Cinema's key customers - teenagers - are not only early adapters of such stuff. They may be investing more of their dwindling entertainment dollars in it.

"Appealing to teenagers is becoming a bit of a risky business because, the last time I heard, the unemployment figures for 16 to 24-year-olds were much, much worse than what adults are looking at," Contrino said. "That group that used to have some disposable income to throw around might not have it anymore."

That noted, the industry is banking on youth- and family-friendly superhero films, franchise sequels and animated spectaculars to reverse the downward trend during 2011's summer and holiday movie frames.

"Our members are not happy with how things are performing right now, obviously," NATO's Corcoran said. "But people are certainly looking forward to May and seeing some sort of a turnaround. We expect it, and will probably be surprised when something that nobody expects will do as well as it does and, y'know, happy days are here again."

"Summer has films like `Thor' and `Pirates of the Caribbean' and `Cars 2' and `The Hangover' sequel, followed by a holiday season that has another `Chipmunks' and `Sherlock Holmes,' and a new `Mission: Impossible'," Dergarabedian said, adding that those are the times when Hollywood makes most of its yearly nut. "I'd take having a strong summer and holiday over having a strong first quarter any day."

It should also be noted that, once the Big As, "Avatar" and "Alice," played out, 2010's weekly box office figures came back in line with yearly norms, and even started falling below 2009's in November and December. Therefore, most of 2011's remaining weekends won't be compared to such record numbers.

Of course, that could be the source of even worse news.

"That also means that if we have down weekends later in the year, that's really bad!" Dergarabedian said. "You can't make the excuse `Well, there was an "Avatar" a year ago.' It means we still couldn't beat something middling."

Isla Fisher Sarah Wynter Kate Groombridge Katharine McPhee Gwen Stefani